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Friday, May 30, 2008

Democratic Heartbreak: Still No Recession

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In news sure to bring Democrats to tears the Commerce Department today announced the economy actually grew a weak but still real .9% in the first quarter of this year. As a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP it appears that the much anticipated "Bush recession" refuses to show up as the Dems have been hoping. Oh, and if you didn't remember, the media's favorite Republican is also on the recession bandwagon, in March saying,

So, I would say that, oh, it’s very likely, and more and more economists are saying that we are probably, quote, ‘in a recession.’
The fact is that those anticipating, either ruefully or happily, a recession may wind up being disappointed for a long time to come. Blogger sbvor notes that...

According to the NBER [National Bureau of Economic Research]:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

But, there never has been and, I would wager, never will be, any recession which does not involve at least one quarter of negative GDP growth.

And, the professionals whose income depends upon accurate economic forecasts, continue to forecast economic growth in every quarter of 2008.

As conservatives frequently note, any news that is good for the country this election season is bad for Democratic chances. Add an economy on its way back from a shaky period to the good news coming out of Iraq and you might just see how badly things looking up will bring the Dems' mood down.

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